by Hank Boerner – Chair & Chief Strategist – G&A Institute

November 2018 commentary – with updates (see end)

If you were aware of the mandated National Climate Change assessment of the Federal government of the United States of America…here is what you need to know.

Whether you are an investor, company executive or board member, or an issue advocate, or civic leader, these “high probability” outcomes should keep you up at night:  more superstorms; more drought; increased risk of forest fires; more floods; rising sea levels; melting glaciers; ocean acidification; increasing atmospheric water vapor (thus, more powerful rainstorms)…and more.

How about a potential drop of 10% in the U.S.A. Gross Domestic Product by end of this century?

These are some of the subjects explored in depth in the fourth “Climate Science Special Report” of the U.S. Global Change Research Program.  That is a collaborative effort of more than a dozen Federal departments, such as NOAA, NASA, US EPA, and executive branch cabinet offices of Commerce, Agriculture, Energy, State, Transportation, and Defense; plus the OMB (Office of the President).

The experts gathered from these departments of the U.S. government plus a passel of university-based experts, reported last week (in over 1600 pages of related content) on the “state of science relating to climate change and its physical impacts.”

The CSSR (the Climate Science Special Report) serves as a foundation for efforts to assess climate-related risks and inform decision-makers…it does not include policy recommendations.  The results are not encouraging – at least not in November 2018.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is the lead agency working with NASA and other governmental bodies to develop the report – which analyzes current trends in climate change and project major trends out to the end of this 21st Century.  The focus of the work is on human welfare, societal, economic, and environmental elements of climate change.

Each chapter of the report focuses on key findings and assigns a “confidence statement” for scientific uncertainties. There are 10 regional analyses of recent climate change (such as the Northeast, and Southern Great Plains).

Some highlights:

(1) This period is now the warmest in the history of modern civilization.

2) Thousands of studies have documented changes in surface, atmospheric and oceanic temps;

(3) glaciers are rapidly melting;

4) we have rising sea levels;

5) the incidence of daily tidal flooding is accelerating in more than 25 Atlantic and Gulf coast cities.

The various findings, the authors point out, are based on a large body of scientific, peer-reviewed research, evaluated observations and modeling data sets. In this report, we should note, experts and not politicians speak to us in clear terms.

Global climate is projected to change over this century (and beyond) – the report is replete with “likelihoods” of events) and the experts state that with major effort, temps could be limited to 3.6°F / 2°C or less – or else.  Without action, average global temperatures could increase 9°F / 5°C relative to pre-industrial times – spelling disaster at the end of the 2100s.

The Financial Stability Board’s  (FSB) Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (the “TCFD”) strongly recommendations that the financial sector companies and (initial) four business sectors begin to test scenarios against (to begin with) 2-degrees Centigrade (3.5°F) temp rise and increase from there.

The four industry groups in the Financial Sector are:  Banks, Insurance Companies, Asset Owners, Asset Managers.

The four non-financial business sectors are:  Agriculture. Food & Forest Products; Buildings & Materials; Transportation; Energy (Oil & Gas).

This new national assessment from the Federal government should be a valuable resource for investors, bankers, insurance carriers and a wide range of companies in their scenario planning (content related to alternative scenarios is in the report).

Click the links below for:

• Full report
• Exec Summary

TCFD information is here: https://www.fsb-tcfd.org/

Our Top Story in Sustainability Highlights this week is The Washington Post’s take on the report and its issuance by the Federal government on what some officials considered to be a slow Thanksgiving Friday news period.  The news coverage that followed was anything but “slow”!

Washington Post – Climate story by Brady Dennis and Christ Mooney
Major Trump administration climate report says damage is ‘intensifying across the country’
(Friday November 23, 2018) Source: The Washington Post – Scientists are more certain than ever that climate change is already affecting the United States — and that it is going to be very expensive. The federal government on Friday released a long-awaited report with an unmistakable message: The effects of climate change, including deadly wildfires, increasingly debilitating hurricanes and heat waves, are already battering the United States, and the danger of more such catastrophes is worsening.

* * * * * * * *

The critical work of the U.S. Global Change Research Program is ongoing.  Consider these cautions (warnings!) issued by the organization in March 2020 — looking at the Southwest region of the U.S.A.

• Water for people and nature in the SW has declined during droughts.
• Southwest forests and other ecosystems’ ability to provide natural habitat, clean water, and economic livelihoods has declined.
• Many coastal resources in the region are affected with sea level rising, ocean waters warming, reduced ocean oxygen, and ocean acidification.
• Indigenous peoples in the region are more and more affected by drought, wildfires, and the changes in ocean waters.
• Hydropower – so vital in the region – it is now harder and harder to meet energy demands, that is, along with fossil fuel powers as well. The population has been increasing (the rush to the sunbelt and job centers in the region).
• Food production is vulnerable to the water shortage situation in different places.
• And of course with all of this there are now rising health risks — think about the impact of heat waves, ozone days with poor air quality, and with warming, pathogen growth, both nasty things always there and with warming, now buggies of all sorts coming in (vectors) along with the diseases they carry.

The Global Change team shares these kinds of findings on an ongoing basis – not waiting for the periodic full reports to be published.

Like to help?  Expert assistance is being requested, with open period to April 26, 2020 – as the Sixth Assessment is in the process.  Information at the Open Sources page: https://www.globalchange.gov/notices?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_campaign=1a2b149f07-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2020_03_25_03_00&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_00fda1a12d-1a2b149f07-296853117

We’ll continue to update this post from time-to-time.  Let’s not lose track of the critical work of this arm of the U.S. government — even as people in high power continue to deny that the climate is changing…or that humankind has a hand in things as the planet warms (with disastrous results for many people).